Someone sent me the link this morning to this article: What if the real estate market doesn’t recover? I think it makes some good points. Loved the ending:
If Stupidity got us into this mess, then why can’t it get us out?
– Will Rogers
This bit from that article is less of a chuckle:
Everyone has a theory of what the future of real estate will bring. For most people that theory is simply what they want to believe or what they hope will happen.
Some time ago, I read a book called The Art of the Long View, by Peter Schwartz which presented a way of thinking about the future that Kelly and I have used loosely ever since, chiefly in our business but also with some personal decisions. When considering the future, we imagine up to five different possible scenarios. For example, and just making this up off the top of my head, here are five possible scenarios for the US economy and real estate in let’s say the next few years:
- The economy recovers, real estate bounces back, credit is available.
- The economy doesn’t soar or tank, just stays kinda flat. Houses move, but more slowly than in the first scenario.
- The current economic downturn is a recession for a few months or years, and gradually things pick up. A lot of people go through some quite hard times economically. Real estate prices are lower than at present.
- We enter a depression and stay there throughout the next decade. Things get dire worldwide.
- Global climate change throws in wild cards (hurricanes, droughts, huge storms, unseasonal weather, forest fires, etc) with any of the above scenarios.
Fun reading, huh? Okay, maybe your list would be cheerier… or not. Then we evaluate our various plans of action in the light of these possibilities, and also talk about which ones appear most likely to us, in the absence of a crystal ball.
By the way, real estate here in the Lake Chapala area has slowed down too. There’s an old saying, “When the US sneezes, Mexico catches a cold.” One realtor I chatted with recently estimated that 2008 sales were about 35% to 40% down from 2007. Prices are dropping, though not as much as, say, California. But some people we know from the US are buying a lovely home in the Lake Chapala area at a price that I find astonishingly low for an attractive house with several bedrooms, recently remodeled, in a location with a stunning view. Oh yeah, and a swimming pool.
During the time we have been living in Mexico, I have tended to think that lots of boomers would come down here to retire. Now, I think it’s harder to guess. A couple of thoughts:
- American boomers may be less mobile and have less disposable income than they expected.
- On the other hand, they can live on way less down here, specially now with the peso dropping. It has been around 10.5 pesos to the dollar most of the past few years. It’s around 14 pesos to the dollar today and has been in the 13s for some time lately. That means our dollars go a LOT further. What’s ahead for the exchange rate? That would be another scenario list…
Now for my “real life” comment: whatever happens, this is our time to be alive, this is our time to love our families, friends, pets, and world. This is our time to do the things that are important to us, to whatever degree we can. If some of us have to put some dreams on hold, we can still find other dreams to fulfill. Don’t want to sound too pollyanna-ish, but I see many Mexicans around me so full of zest for life — and it rubs off.
Readers, your thoughts on any of this are most welcome in the comments section.


We all wonder about where we are heading. Clearly, the excesses of the last couple of decades have caught up with us. But your final comments point the way. We can find contentment and happiness even in times of recession. Sometimes scaling down leads to a better life in general.